I think good chance you're on the right track with a bare or loose wire somewhere. Moisture in kill switch?
I don't think weather has anything to do with seeings how it's ran both perfectly and poorly in every condition. The spark plug is slightly on the darker side of coffee with cream so it's close, maybe a bit rich. I'll be going through the carburator again tomorrow so I'll look at the idle mixture screw.check the needle jet. If it is wallowed out then that makes off idle jetting too rich.
The inconsistency of the problem may be due partly to weather changes if the jetting is right on the edge of being too rich down low.